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Trading plan for July 12
Wednesday economic data were positive for the USD but couldn’t pull it up. PPI and core PPI data were greater than the forecast. The US dollar index tested the resistance at $94.50 but couldn’t stick above it. Up to now, the index has been trading near $94.10. Later in the evening, members of the Fed will give speeches at 19:30 and 23:30 MT time. However, it’s unlikely they will affect the USD a lot. More important economic data will be released on Thursday. CPI and core CPI figures will be out at 15:30 MT time. The forecast is neutral. If the actual data are greater than the forecast, the USD will be able to recover. Otherwise, it will fall further. Key levels for the US dollar index are supports at $94 and $93.50 and the resistance at $94.50.
The euro suffers high volatility as trade war tensions weigh on the market. Moreover, the ECB President Mr. Draghi didn’t cover the monetary policy in his speech early on Wednesday. EUR/USD tested two supports at 1.1735 and 1.17, however, managed to recover. Up to now, the pair has been trading above 1.1735. 50-day MA seems to be the strong support for the pair. The rise of the pair is mostly caused by the weak USD. On Thursday, traders will look at the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts. The Central Bank will explain its recent decision. If traders catch some positive clues on the future monetary policy, the euro will be able to strengthen. The resistance lies at 1.1810. Otherwise, risks of the fall to 1.17 remain high.
The pound doesn’t have enough support to break the resistance at 1.3280. Tuesday economic data weren’t encouraging for the British currency. Moreover, there are more resignations in the UK government and the Brexit deal uncertainties are escalating. All these pull the pound down. On Wednesday, the Governor of the BOE Mr. Carney will give a speech at 18:35 MT time. If he gives some positive comments on the future monetary policy, GBP/USD will be able to break the resistance. Otherwise, the further fall is anticipated. On Thursday, traders will pay attention to BOE credit conditions survey. If it’s optimistic, the pound will appreciate. However, the USD will have more impact on the GBP/USD. Stronger USD won’t let the pair rise. In case of the weaker USD, GBP/USD will have chances. Key levels are supports at 1.3225 (50- and100-hour MAs) and 1.3155, resistances at 1.3280 and 1.3355 (50-day MA).
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