The first week of autumn, the new challenges for the markets
Weekly Market Outlook: June 3-7
On Tuesday, the whole attention of traders will be at the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts predict the interest rate to be cut by 25 basis points. The Australian dollar is anticipated to fall ahead of the meeting. However, as the rate cut is priced in, we don’t expect a dramatic plunge. If the central bank decides to surprise the market and keep the rate on hold, the aussie will definitely strengthen.
On Wednesday, Australia will present its GDP growth. The greater actual release will support the domestic currency.
On Thursday, we all will keep an eye to the ECB meeting. Suffering economic data and external threats don’t let the central bank move from the low interest rate. The rate won’t be changed but the bank will unveil details of the bank loans. If the central bank aims at any accommodative measure, the euro will suffer. Amid the central bank comments, don’t forget about Canadian trade balance data.
And of course, on the first Friday of the month, we will wait for Amerian jobs data. Non-farm payrolls will become the major driver of markets. However, be careful trading USD/CAD. Canadian jobs data will be out at the same time. Mixed data may create mixed moves.
Now it’s time to look at the technical picture.
The euro has chances to recover
Last week, EUR/USD touched lows near 1.1115 but managed to rebound. However, the pressure is still high and the risks of the fall prevail. If the pair plunges below 1.1115, we will see a continuing decline towards 1.0956. If EUR/USD stays above 1.1115, chances of the recovery will increase. Next important target is located at 1.1215. If the pair breaks above, 1.1258 will become the next level to cross.
USD/CAD gains momentum
Finally, the pair broke the upper boundary of the horizontal channel at 1.3508. As soon as it gains a foothold above this level we will see a further rise towards 1.3572. The next top is located at 1.3645. However, the pressure is high. As a result, the rise may be limited. Until the pair falls below 1.3508, the uptrend will in force. A decline below that level will show the weakness of bulls signaling correction.
AUD/USD is under pressure
The pair has been trying to strengthen after reaching crucial lows. However, the possible rate cut may limit the upward movement. An important high lies at 0.6930. If the pair sticks above it, odds of the further increase appear. The next resistance lies at 0.7025. If the pair stays below 0.6930, the downtrend continues. The next support lies at 0.6860. A fall below will be dramatic for the pair.
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